Started out kind of bad but like everything else, turned around towards the end of the month.
Probably more volatility and flatness until the election. Then maybe another bull market.
Current Portfolio:
HKD/USD cash: 10.72% (13.25%)
USD ST bonds: 27.44% (27.34%)
USD stocks: 15.57% (15.95%)
USD LT bonds: 0% (6.55%)
Gold (USD): 19.38% (16.57%)
Bitcoin (USD): 5.25% (3.90%)
JPY stocks: 14.85% (16.38%)
YEN cash: 18.79% (5.87%)
YEN shorts: -11.99% (-12.0%)
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The biggest change is getting rid of ALL US long-term bonds. Already wrote another post on this so won’t go into details.
Used that fund to increase my gold position and will be increasing it more. Also wrote another post on this.
Covered all my yen carry, and looking to reduce USD cash and ST bonds positions to a minimum.
I will maintain at least 6-12 months of liquidity in there though just in case income drops significantly in a short period of time.
US Equity
Still looks good despite September usually being a bad month.
With the increased liquidity all over the world (-Japan), there should be another bull market coming in the following months.
A recession probability seems low at this point and to be honest, I’m not sure with all the liquidity being pumped in the coming months, a recession would even dampen the equity and commodity markets.
JP Equity
Same story here, started out shitty back down to 35k then back up to 38k again now – almost hitting 40k at one point.
With the new prime minister on the “hawkish” side for economic policies though, maybe in the near future there isn’t too much room to go.
In any case, the strong yen is holding up the JP equity value in USD and it’s a nice diversification in case of yen debasement, so I’ll stick around the 15% probably for the next months if there aren’t any crazy movements.
USD.JPY
Heading to a stronger yen and it seems like the trend will probably continue, with easing cycles not just in the US but also EU, China, basically everywhere.
So the yen will become stronger against everything and it feels right to unwind all the yen carry trade at this point.
Also I will take the low borrowing costs of yen (if it stays that way) in case I need the liquidity during a downturn – which is a good strategy probably anyways as yen will be at its most expensive and will cheapen as the market recovers.
(borrow when expensive, then pay back when cheap is profitable)
Gold/Crypto
Crypto is just super boring for the most part.
It did go up in Sept but just recovering lost ground from the highs in august.
Anyways I did pick up some cheap bitcoins and 3439/MSTR on the way.
Let’s see if it keeps going up – or if it goes down again I’ll be buying more dips.
Gold shot up like crazy – +6% in a month. I guess mostly due to the rate cutting. Made a shit ton of money there.
In any case, I’ll keep increasing the gold weight in my portfolio in replacement of USD bonds.
If I am seeing it right, the USD debasement will only get worse from here and equity, gold, and crypto should be shooting up in the next several years.