Alright, so the USDJPY has fallen to 142 in the past few days (JPYHKD ~0.055)
This is basically the lowest since 2023 and has hit the low of the yen-carry unwind fiasco back in Aug2024.
So the big question is – is the weak yen over? Or is this just a temporary setback?
My conclusion is, it should be a temporary setback, and I will lay out the reasons. Will check back at this post in a few months or a year to see how it unfolds.
The main reason for the weak USDJPY – weak DXY
dollar selling pressure
not too sure the exact reasons – unwilling to invest in the US?
Will DXY continue to fall?
not helpful to trump admin to achieve their MAGA goals?
Can JXY rise? unlikely
Japan national debt
BOJ buying debt, inflation cycle
pressure from Trump admin to buy US stuff and invest in US