Previously I’ve decided to keep bitcoin around 5-10% as I’ve started investing earlier this year.

The logic and timing might be flawed, but I’ve decided to increase that to at least 10-15%, maybe up to 20% max now.

I want to make sure I am doing it with sound logic so I am writing a post here to keep track of my thought on that.

The recent rally from 70k to 90k+

Trump elected.

Less regulation, promise to make bitcoin reserve, pro-crypto policies etc.

Chasing at the top? Or just the beginning?

I’ve always believed bitcoin has potential to $1M+ back when it was 10k.

But I could be wrong and it could be zero.

so I invested HK$10k.

Went up to 70k in 2021, drop back down to <20k afterward with the FTX fiasco.

With the ETFs and wall street, now possibly US joining, the probability of going to zero has significantly reduced.

However upside also reduced, much harder to 100x from here.

10x is still reasonable.

Increasing the allocation not because risen so much, but because it has become safer and probably less volatile from here on, also with less return potential.

Too heavy in Gold?

Reduced the cash and bonds position and moved almost all into gold.

Very heavy as gold drops ~10%.

Fortunately bitcoin and tesla made up for the loss.

But made me think deeply about the “risk” of too much gold.

No profit taking at 100k – good or bad decision?

was going to stay at 10% and profit take after 100k.

Now going to 12-15% and had to buy some at 90k, probably no profit taking around 100k.

But at least getting there for almost free instead of having to invest.

Can have extra to put into something else – decided to increase the US stock % a bit as well.

Nice analogy I heard today

Last generation got rich investing real estate.

In Hong Kong buying in the 70s or 80s, everyone is rich.

OR in the second wave, buying during 01-04, also super rich.

But it wouldn’t have been easy to buy back then.

Especially in the 2nd wave when it was crashing.

Can’t get rich with the old methods, but new methods are available. Question is if you have the guts.

Bitcoin is the new real estate – maybe.

And Tesla – maybe.

It was Apple and Meta and Amazon and Nvidia – the ships have sailed, more or less.