寫完關於香港樓市展望同預測，寫埋另外幾個我有投資嘅範圍吧。
首先講美股。過去連續兩年，S&P500 都有超過 20% 的回報。
可惜 2023 年我未開始投資，而 2024 年我係年中先開始接觸美股，所以都食唔晒個兩成回報。
不過相反咁睇，第一年開始投資遇著牛市都係好事掛，起碼就算係錯覺，都會覺得自己應該係有啲料到 ^_^”
anyway，咁 2025 年我又覺得會點呢？
Author Archives: lytstephen
2025 Investment Theme
So one thing that I’ve been hearing and I whole-heartedly agree with is this notion of “investment theme”.
Successful long-term investing is mostly identifying the right “themes” and positioning there, more so that choosing individual stocks or assets themselves.
So I’ll start 2025 by consolidating the themes I’ve identified myself – not necessarily that they are the “right” themes, but I want to organize my ideas and thoughts and keep reviewing and updating them as time goes on.
Investment 20250101
started out as a great month, but dropped down toward the end of the month (no santa rally).
It’s a good thing though because I just received the $1.3M cash from grandma’s home sale and I need to start buying, so buying after a dip is better.
2025 展望（一）：香港樓市
宜家 2024 年尾，考慮緊好唔好買樓入市，買個地方俾阿媽住，慳番幫佢交租。
交緊大約 $10,000 租金，而宜家買樓 300萬樓下等於免印花稅。計過條數，作為「投資回報」交租俾自己都合理，所以 set 咗 300萬呢個 budget。
咁啱見到有個合適嘅樓花，不過最後推 325萬，超出咗預算。有同自己講，其實都係爭嗰 25萬啫，呢個樓花又咁啱心水，不如俾埋佢算。
做完一個詳盡分析，結果都係決定今次 pass 了，不過亦會留意住呢個屋苑，睇吓遲啲可唔可以二手入市。
趁呢個機會，都想整理一下自己分析嘅點，日後亦可以睇番，作為學習嘅工具。
HK home purchase analysis
With grandma’s passing, there is an extra capital – precisely HK$1.25M, that can be available now.
(mother is keeping $50k. Update – will be getting the entire 1.3M)
After quite some research, the Hung Sui Kiu area is quite suitable for mother, and should have good potential as an investment as well.
I want to take this post to dive into the details and try to see what decisions I need to make.
Investment 20241201
Holy crap what a great month.
The bet on crypto finally is paying off, and gold didnt do too well but the whole Bitcoin/Tesla jump covered it and more.
Why I’ve decided to increase my Bitcoin allocation
Previously I’ve decided to keep bitcoin around 5-10% as I’ve started investing earlier this year.
The logic and timing might be flawed, but I’ve decided to increase that to at least 10-15%, maybe up to 20% max now.
(Edit – as of 25/11/2024 I am keeping it around 10-14%, since MSTR is leveraged bitcoin and is even more volatile)
I want to make sure I am doing it with sound logic so I am writing a post here to keep track of my thought on that.
relationship between US debt, inflation, and interest rate?
So as Trump wins, the market is moving accordingly – the obvious narratives are, more spending, more debt, and higher inflation.
Therefore, long term interest rate spiked up, and the DXY spiked up as well, from the expectation of higher inflation and the Fed raising rates.
But something kind of doesn’t add up. I will try to summarize in this post.
the acceleration of USD debasement, and strategy to take
I’ve already written about the USD and in general fiat debasement in the “gold” post, but I want to expand here.
USD debasement is happening at a very accelerated rate, probably faster than I previously thought.
Hyperinflation I thought would be impossible with USD, but now I am not so sure.
Investment 20241101
Up a lot during the month, trimmed a bit toward the end but still end up major positive.
Mainly from the gain in gold prices.
I’ve already written other posts about gold, can see the big shift I have here with the gold investment.