I’ve made some realization on my philosophy of why I’ve allocated my portfolio the way I did.
I don’t think I’ve made an entire post on the thinking though, so I am writing it down here.
So if the portfolio’s return isn’t great, I can review this post and remind myself why I’ve chose to put it like this and no need to regret retrospectively.
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$+48k
A really flat month. Started out pretty good recovering maybe HK$300-400k of the losses from previous month.
However rate hike expectations remain high and Iran war continues to be unresolved.
Anyway hopefully a bottom is in for gold and BTC and I can be patient for a recovery. If it drops further though I might have to reduce leverage again and sell lower.
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-1.33M
Needless to say, it was a painful month as far as investment returns go.
Basically wiped out all gains I’ve made since I have started investing.
However, I think I was mentally prepared for it as I have ramped up my leverage and gains/losses this magnitude is within my expectations.
And being in unrealized losses feels not great but I am quite confident it will rebound in the near future.
I just read another piece by Ray Dalio on world power and new orders.
That made me realized things about my investment strategy and also reflect on this month’s heavy underperformance.
The biggest drawdown during the month was HK$-1.2M, and it’s sitting around -800k at of writing on June 19th.
I outlined the numbers in another post so I will continue to update there, but I want to organize my thoughts in this post.
Alright so it’s June 11 now and the market is just in free fall mode.
Unfortunately it’s not just stocks. In fact stock is kind of the “best” performer out of the assets.
Gold has been falling off a cliff, BTC retraced back to its multi-year low.
Also unfortunately there will be no liquidity to buy the dip this time. Just need to survive.
(The portfolio is down HK$-1.2M at its worst by the way)
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-58,000
So this was a weird month for sure.
The market is rallying hard, but I am mostly left behind.
QQQ outperformed GRNY and Mag7, while SHLD and NLR actually declined.
The Japanese stocks I held also declined while the Nikkei went the opposite direction soaring.
Probably the biggest divergence and narrowest market I’ve seen and unfortunately I am mostly on the wrong side.
Overall still up on stocks for the month but not nearly as good as the market index itself, and not enough to make up the gold or BTC losses.
USDJPY also gained a lot though so that’s why closed the month basically flat.
I consulted Gemini for some comfort, and it tells me what I already know but want to hear I guess anyways:
The strategy and allocation isn’t wrong. It’s just a narrow run up that might see a correction sooner or later. And the barbell strategy I am deploying is what allows me to ride at such a high leverage ratio.
During downturns my portfolio should be solid and experience a much shallower drawdown than the indexes, especially given that I’ve added the Japanese industrial names (which performed very poorly this month, -15-20% for MHI and Mitsui).
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$489,000
Things were mostly V-shaped recovered since the war. Was actually up +800k at one point.
Gold has been stagnating and pulling back though so the P/L hasn’t fully recovered.
Anyway BTC did very well and stocks are at ATH again.
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-32,000
Was down -400k at one point, bounced back to flat to end the month.
Gold has held up well, stocks are kind of fine. Added Japanese stocks which performed well this month.
BTC still in the dumpster as usual, just patiently waiting.
Recap back 2.5 months ago in Nov2025, my guess was:
Let’s review the predictions and gather the current thoughts at this point.
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$+397,000
Phew what a roller coaster month to say the least!
Everything is moving up and down … well with BTC just down.
Anyway all in all still very nice return for the month. Feb is having a bad start but somehow I am still kind of confident it’d be an up month.