Monthly Investment P/L: HK$489,000
Things were mostly V-shaped recovered since the war. Was actually up +800k at one point.
Gold has been stagnating and pulling back though so the P/L hasn’t fully recovered.
Anyway BTC did very well and stocks are at ATH again.
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-32,000
Was down -400k at one point, bounced back to flat to end the month.
Gold has held up well, stocks are kind of fine. Added Japanese stocks which performed well this month.
BTC still in the dumpster as usual, just patiently waiting.
Recap back 2.5 months ago in Nov2025, my guess was:
Let’s review the predictions and gather the current thoughts at this point.
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$+397,000
Phew what a roller coaster month to say the least!
Everything is moving up and down … well with BTC just down.
Anyway all in all still very nice return for the month. Feb is having a bad start but somehow I am still kind of confident it’d be an up month.
So I was positioning the portfolio to have more BTC exposure than stocks, and this past month I’ve decided to keep them equal weight.
And in the process I also added JP stocks into the portfolio so I want to make a post to outline my thought process on that.
I realized I have developed a wider range of thesis for my investments and it’s probably a good idea to keep track of them by writing it out.
And my thinking would probably change over time too so it would be interesting to look back and see how it has evolved.
Monthly Investment P/L: HK$-21,000
Was up >$200k due to a sharp rise in gold, but had since given back all of it and ended the month near zero.
Still made gains in gold but had some losses with BTC and stocks as well, overall not a great month for risk assets. No Santa rally.
The macro environment is still favoring a bull market though so I am not too concerned. Let’s see if Jan can be an up month.
So I’ve been doing year in review for business+life, but for investment this would be the first one.
Anyway let me review the kind of thoughts and predictions I had at the beginning of the year, and how things have played out.
Predictions within a 1-year timeframe is near impossible anyway but it’s still a fun activity, plus it’s useful to try to learn from history.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-474000
Needless to say, a terrible month. Basically a mini-bear market for crypto and not great for stocks.
The main loss were from BTC and MSTR, -600k+ for the month. Stocks slightly down, and gold was up.
As mentioned in another post though I think this is a temporary correction and I expect a full recovery quickly.
It’s Nov 21 2025 now and BTC is at 86k, MSTR around $177.
BTC was -30% from its ATH of 126k less than 2 months ago in Sept.
MSTR’s ATH of $430 was made earlier in July, and now -60% 4 months later.
The strangest thing is, there isn’t too much bad news … in fact pretty much all headwind so far, outlined in my bull case post a couple months ago.
So what is going on?