It’s Nov 21 2025 now and BTC is at 86k, MSTR around $177.
BTC was -30% from its ATH of 126k less than 2 months ago in Sept.
MSTR’s ATH of $430 was made earlier in July, and now -60% 4 months later.
The strangest thing is, there isn’t too much bad news … in fact pretty much all headwind so far, outlined in my bull case post a couple months ago.
So what is going on?
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$108,000
Up for the month, but don’t really have that “up” feel because fell quite a bit from beginning of the month.
Gold exploded up to $4300+ but pulled back to around $4000 level. Stocks did quite okay.
Bitcoin hit ATH but quickly pulled back to 105-115k consolidation range. MSTR is in the dumpster so a lot of losses there.
USDJPY ran up quite a bit too though so all in all a slightly positive month.
I’ve been using the fear/greed gauge to sort of give myself an indication of overbought and oversold conditions.
And while very useful, Gold has basically shot up against gravity and broke right through $4000 as of today.
During this epic run up, it’s been in “extreme greed” level for a pretty long time, and I want to jot down my thoughts on this one.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$526,000
Needless to say, just a super spectacular month for investment returns!
Mostly coming from the outperformance of gold, but US stocks did quite well as well.
BTC is actually really lagging, more below.
As of Sept 2025, currently quite bullish with risk assets (BTC, US stocks) based on a few reasons, which I will explain below
Also at the same time, not for the same reason, I want to push up the leverage ratio, as explain in the other posts.
So there is this weird combination of trying to buy a lot during a bull run, which is a conflicting feeling, and I want to write down my thoughts here.
So after some internal debate, I have finally decided to dip my toes into some ETH.
The story is compelling – stablecoins, financial tokenization, etc. which can really fuel ETH usage. And it’s different than the previous NFT hype I am pretty sure.
The risk is there for sure though … competitions (SOL, etc), and also fluctuating supply mechanism, unlike BTC 21M hard supply cap.
Monthly Investment P/L: +HK$-111,000
Finally a down month … mainly driven by some BTC downturn, and an even stronger MSTR downturn.
Was up +$100k at one point as BTC hit ATH around 123k again, but had a pullback to 109k and MSTR also had the mNAV compressed by a lot.
Stocks are flat while Gold is up, and the BTC correction is completely healthy and will be a small pullback I am pretty sure.
So nothing to be concerned about at all at this point.
It’s been a theme these past few months, maybe this year – that I’m constantly adding leverage to my portfolio.
As I become more educated and also more confident in my investment theses, I find that it would be disadvantageous to not use up available liquidity just for the sake of “safety”.
Of course that being said, safety needs to be a concern at all times, and so I am adding metrics to safeguard the downside while making sure I’m not leaving huge amount of money on the table by having too much idle liquidity.
So MSTR has kind of behaved strangely in the past couple months. Looking at a 3-mo horizon, BTC is up +13.9%, while MSTR is -11.3% as I am writing.
I can understand if BTC is up more than MSTR. Even understand if BTC is up and MSTR is kind of flat.
But they have gone opposite direction pretty significantly these past 1-2 months – and of course the mNAV has compressed quickly and significantly, from 1.8x just a month ago to ~1.4x currently.
So the question is – is the MSTR premium over and it will continue compressing to 1? Or is it just a temporary setback that will correct itself?
So the US stock market has really rallied from its April lows, in apparently one of the biggest V-shape recovery in history, gaining 20%+ in just a couple months.
Of course my portfolio has benefitted greatly especially since I’ve bought all the way down since Feb.
However, looking back at these 3 months, most of my biggest positions have underperformed the market – even though tech stocks is suppose to outperform the market during run-ups.
Unfortunately that wasn’t the case and I’ll break it down more below.