So last night the CPI data came out – lower than expectation.
Not even that low, but the Sept rate cut probability rose from 70% to 90%. 10-year rates dropped 2% in a matter of hours.
USD.JPY dropped 2% and the market dropped 2% as well. JP market dropped 1.5% as of 9:15 this morning.
Quite a huge past month and I wished I’d update this more often.
Super busy month though with family visiting so I figured today is a good day to update with the huge market change yesterday.
As I’ve dug more into technical analysis, it seems a style that I am gravitating toward is just buying one big wave up, then staying put on those sideway moves and wait for the next breakout.
To succeed with this strategy I think there are 4 things that need to be mastered …
So I’ve been learning about the basics of support and resistance … and a big theme is resistance is hard to break, but once it break through it’ll move dramatically and usually the past resistance will become the future support.
On the graph it looks nice, but what is the logic behind that?
I’ve just gotten a better picture of why that happens … and understanding the why can be very important for understanding more about market sentiment and price actions.
Alright so I knew day-trading probably isn’t quite right for me, but swing trading on the other hand sounds just like my cup of tea looking from the outside.
Anyway the fundamental skills for both are probably similar and I want to make some remarks for myself and what I’ve learned so far plus my thoughts.
Just want to keep track of what kind of questions I’d have right now or earlier as a beginner …
so as I learn more I’ll create content and answer them for other beginners.
So when I first started investing, the question of whether to buy short term bills or longer term notes or even bonds (5-10yrs+) was a big question on my mind.
A friend with some investing experience said he’d just “mark the market” and wouldn’t buy longer term notes.
That kind of made sense and I’m glad I didn’t go into longer term bonds without fully understanding the consequences.
Now that I have a better understand, just got the idea from a video about perhaps when I might move into some longer term bonds.
So although I’ve always heard people buy gold as an investment, I used to think it doesn’t make much sense.
Not only it doesn’t yield interest/dividend/cashflow, if I buy real gold it’d actually cost money and effort to store it.
And historically it only holds up to inflation, while stocks and real estate increase manyfold meanwhile.
But I’ve changed my mind and I think I’ll probably be allocating around 5-10% of the portfolio in gold, depending on how I read the market and macro-economic … well, unless I change my mind again.
So Nvidia is shooting up like crazy … when people (and I) thought $900 was expensive, now it’s $1200 and the upward momentum seems unstoppable.
I almost bought 1 share at $1100 and back of my mind a little bit beating myself up for missing out the $100 increase.
But logically it’s the right decision … so I want to write the post to re-assure myself.
Haven’t moved much since my last update but I felt like maybe it’s time to do an update anyways.
Portfolio have done well since and it’s mind-boggling that the big-tech can just keep going up.
I am guessing it’s gotta go the other way sooner or later, although many people thought that in 2023 and they’ve been wrong for over a year.