Alright, so the USDJPY has fallen to 142 in the past few days (JPYHKD ~0.055)
This is basically the lowest since 2023 and has hit the low of the yen-carry unwind fiasco back in Aug2024.
So the big question is – is the weak yen over? Or is this just a temporary setback?
My conclusion is, it should be a temporary setback, and I will lay out the reasons. Will check back at this post in a few months or a year to see how it unfolds.
Started out pretty brutal but recovered quite a bit toward the end.
Also gold is just having a huge bull run, so the gains there offset the loss from US stocks and bitcoin quite a bit.
In any case bitcoin is holding out pretty well and I already wrote another post lately on my new bullish-ness on that.
Alright so first of all, I am adjusting up my bitcoin allocation from previous month’s 15%, up to 20% now.
It’s a huge adjustment so I want to spend a post to jot down my thought process and my strategy for this move.
Super brutal month.
Started out okay as gold kept going up, and stocks and bitcoin held kind of steady although losing steam.
The last few days of the month though, huge sell-off, and down quite a bit this month.
I guess I did anticipate it though and let’s reflect more in this post.
So Feb 2025 was the worst month since the Aug 2024 “Ueda Shock” sell off.
Market sentiment is at its lowest, with fear index exact same as the lowest point in Aug 5th, 2024.
From looking at the previous fear cycle, it took less than 1 month to recover to “greed” and 3 months later back to “extreme greed”.
So I want to outline my prediction and outlook here for the next few months.
Wanted to publish another post on my thoughts regarding cutting back.
So I looked at NVDA when it was $100 ($1000 pre-split). It was expensive and I didn’t understand much about it so I passed.
In the recent couple months, I had a HK$1.3M additional capital come in, so I decided to give NVDA a shot.
So I revisited an interesting AI post written by “wait but why”, back in 2015 (10 years ago).
I saw an interesting notion about how progress happens in S-curve – a new technology emerge, slow growth, then mass adoption, then matures.
From my lifetime, I can see how that played out in the internet boom.
And I think now the AI boom is unfolding in front of me. So I want to make some predictions here and see how right I am 5-10 years from now.
My biggest position by far is Tesla now, and I have kind of slide up the dial on the allocation for the past few months.
So I want to write a post here to make a record on my thought process now and revisit this months and years later.
Also to caution and remind myself some important things about investing in TSLA.
I had been thinking about adding the wheel option strategy into my long term investment, but the option size of minimum 100 shares has always been too big.
Anyway, I found out about the MAGS etf and that size is quite manageable, so I started dipping my toes into it.
Then I found that maybe doing bigger sized like NVDA or TSLA might be okay too, so I gave it a try.
Pretty choppy month for US equities, was up then down then up again.
I guess more of that to be expected with Trump’s unpredictability.
On the other hand, gold rose a lot so did bitcoin, so overall the stellar return this month.