Super brutal month.
Started out okay as gold kept going up, and stocks and bitcoin held kind of steady although losing steam.
The last few days of the month though, huge sell-off, and down quite a bit this month.
I guess I did anticipate it though and let’s reflect more in this post.
So Feb 2025 was the worst month since the Aug 2024 “Ueda Shock” sell off.
Market sentiment is at its lowest, with fear index exact same as the lowest point in Aug 5th, 2024.
From looking at the previous fear cycle, it took less than 1 month to recover to “greed” and 3 months later back to “extreme greed”.
So I want to outline my prediction and outlook here for the next few months.
Wanted to publish another post on my thoughts regarding cutting back.
So I looked at NVDA when it was $100 ($1000 pre-split). It was expensive and I didn’t understand much about it so I passed.
In the recent couple months, I had a HK$1.3M additional capital come in, so I decided to give NVDA a shot.
So I revisited an interesting AI post written by “wait but why”, back in 2015 (10 years ago).
I saw an interesting notion about how progress happens in S-curve – a new technology emerge, slow growth, then mass adoption, then matures.
From my lifetime, I can see how that played out in the internet boom.
And I think now the AI boom is unfolding in front of me. So I want to make some predictions here and see how right I am 5-10 years from now.
My biggest position by far is Tesla now, and I have kind of slide up the dial on the allocation for the past few months.
So I want to write a post here to make a record on my thought process now and revisit this months and years later.
Also to caution and remind myself some important things about investing in TSLA.
I had been thinking about adding the wheel option strategy into my long term investment, but the option size of minimum 100 shares has always been too big.
Anyway, I found out about the MAGS etf and that size is quite manageable, so I started dipping my toes into it.
Then I found that maybe doing bigger sized like NVDA or TSLA might be okay too, so I gave it a try.
Pretty choppy month for US equities, was up then down then up again.
I guess more of that to be expected with Trump’s unpredictability.
On the other hand, gold rose a lot so did bitcoin, so overall the stellar return this month.
So I made a long post in some facebook group about why I think gold is a good investment, and can go up 2-4x in a few years.
The post is long enough that I thought I shouldn’t waste it so I am posting it here too.
Currently I have 45% portfolio allocation to gold. Planning to increase that to 50% with some leverage in place.
I might adjust it in the future but I think it will keep being a big portion of my portfolio. Let’s see this post after a few years and see if I can re-affirm my decision.
Just wanted to make a quick post here about a pretty significant move on the stock market yesterday/today.
So there was a huge sell-off especially in the chip and energy section – NVDA, TSM, VST, CEG.
Took a big hit and the portfolio lost HK$60k in a day.
I think this is a great buying opportunity though and I’d like to look back in a week to this post.
So one thing that I’ve been hearing and I whole-heartedly agree with is this notion of “investment theme”.
Successful long-term investing is mostly identifying the right “themes” and positioning there, more so that choosing individual stocks or assets themselves.
So I’ll start 2025 by consolidating the themes I’ve identified myself – not necessarily that they are the “right” themes, but I want to organize my ideas and thoughts and keep reviewing and updating them as time goes on.