Making this the post to keep track of my outlook on the JP equity market as time goes on.
It’d be a great learning for myself to look back and see how my thought process changes and also be more disciplined.
Also cool to see whether my outlooks are right or wrong in hindsight later.
I figure I need to make a continuously updated post on USD.JPY too, with such a heavy carry-trade position … and a huge shift in the past few days.
So here it is and I’ll copy some main points from previous post in here first.
So at the drop last Friday (12/7, thurs in the U.S.), the interesting thing is the small and mid caps actually rose. By a lot.
RUT was +3.6% while NDX was -1.6%, so that was a super clear sign things are “rotating”.
Why and what’s my next move?
So I thought I was very clear about the difference between investing and trading … turned out I was wrong.
I saw from a technical standpoint that both US and JP market might have a big run up, so I added positions to both.
But after a huge drop yesterday I got scared and cut some positions – which is OK as a trade, but the sizing was perhaps a bit too big.
So last night the CPI data came out – lower than expectation.
Not even that low, but the Sept rate cut probability rose from 70% to 90%. 10-year rates dropped 2% in a matter of hours.
USD.JPY dropped 2% and the market dropped 2% as well. JP market dropped 1.5% as of 9:15 this morning.
Quite a huge past month and I wished I’d update this more often.
Super busy month though with family visiting so I figured today is a good day to update with the huge market change yesterday.
As I’ve dug more into technical analysis, it seems a style that I am gravitating toward is just buying one big wave up, then staying put on those sideway moves and wait for the next breakout.
To succeed with this strategy I think there are 4 things that need to be mastered …
So I’ve been learning about the basics of support and resistance … and a big theme is resistance is hard to break, but once it break through it’ll move dramatically and usually the past resistance will become the future support.
On the graph it looks nice, but what is the logic behind that?
I’ve just gotten a better picture of why that happens … and understanding the why can be very important for understanding more about market sentiment and price actions.
Alright so I knew day-trading probably isn’t quite right for me, but swing trading on the other hand sounds just like my cup of tea looking from the outside.
Anyway the fundamental skills for both are probably similar and I want to make some remarks for myself and what I’ve learned so far plus my thoughts.
Just want to keep track of what kind of questions I’d have right now or earlier as a beginner …
so as I learn more I’ll create content and answer them for other beginners.