Started out pretty brutal but recovered quite a bit toward the end.

Also gold is just having a huge bull run, so the gains there offset the loss from US stocks and bitcoin quite a bit.

In any case bitcoin is holding out pretty well and I already wrote another post lately on my new bullish-ness on that.

Current Portfolio:

HKD/USD cash: 4.19% (4.45%)

USD stocks: 34.24% (34.5%)

JPY stocks: 0% (5.91%)

Bitcoin (USD): 18.09% (14.87%)

Gold (USD): 53.97% (47.88%)

YEN cash: 6.55% (5.27%)

JPY shorts: -17.02% (-12.87%)
USDJPY: 149.89 (150.62)

—

Removed all the JPY stock exposure – moved it all into gold and bitcoin. Really good timing too as the N225 had a 4%+ drop the day after I sold everything.

Also increased my margin by quite a bit and used that to move into gold and bitcoin.

With that said though I actually didn’t buy that much gold. I just didn’t sell and it kept climbing up.

I wanted to add to it though so it’s all good … instead of having to pay to buy, I just use that money to buy the beaten down US stock instead.

US Equity

Same as last month, in the crapper. Everything went even further down, and I bought some more.

The percentage hasn’t changed much but I did have to buy a lot to keep the percentage the same.

Meanwhile gold went up a lot so I didn’t have to buy to push up the percentage. Used some of that saved money to buy the US stocks.

Anyway, I can’t be sure if it’s the bottom yet but it smells like it at this point at least. Everything is oversold. The valuations are getting scarily attractive.

(GOOG 17.4x, META 22.6x?? I mean how much cheaper can they get??)

I wasn’t as convinced about the bottom in Feb, but I am more convinced now. (also as per Tom Lee)

Without a recession this should be about near the bottom. Let’s revisit this prediction and see how it goes.

Valuations

• TSLA – $266.5 (294.4) / FPE 107.86 (111)
• AAPL – $221.38 (241.9) / FPE 29.86 (32.64)
• META – $573.8 (669.4) / FPE 22.57 (26.2)
• AMZN – $190.37 / FPE 29.9
• GOOGL – $154.63 (170.52) / FPE 17.35 (19.33)
• NVDA – $108.05 (125) / FPE 23.76 (32.5)
• TSM – $166.47 (180.8) / FPE 14.6 (19.67)
• CEG – $201.63 (250.6) / FPE 21.18 (27.14)
• VST – $117.05 (133.66) / FPE 18.59 (21.39)

JP Equity

Down to 0% now. Will remove this section next month.

Gold

What another crazy month, +10% for gold. +20% year-to-date now.

So glad that I decided to hold such a large gold position, despite the losses during the last couple months in 2024.

I think it might be quite overbought for now, but I still increased my allocation % a lot this month because I removed the JPY stocks and it can’t all go to US stocks and bitcoins otherwise I’d be too risk-exposed.

Half in gold feels reasonable now given that there is quite a bit of margin used as well.

Will write this down to remind myself that, if gold ever goes through a bad period down the road, it’s still important for me to hold on in case of times like this right now.

Crypto

I wrote that 120k for this year is still feasible … I think that should be the base or even bear case.

With what I’ve outlined in the last post, I think unless the US goes into a prolonged recession and bitcoin gets dragged down … otherwise, it’s going to fly like a rocket soon enough.

Due to the market risk-off selling BTC price has been depressed even as the US strategic bitcoin reserve was announced and also some other bullish factors came out.

I’ve written quite a bit about it in the other post though so won’t repeat too much here.

Anyway I am only afraid that I don’t have enough bitcoin exposure now. Let’s see how things unfold.

JPY shorts / USDJPY

I figure I will add back a section for this since I am using JPY shorts as leverage instead of USD.

I don’t know if it would be considered a “carry trade” as I just wanted to borrow at a cheaper rate.

In any case, it’s still worth looking at the USDJPY to judge whether I would’ve made the right choice borrowing yen instead of USD.

So I’ve already written in the Feb selloff post update, but I’ll repeat here – I think USDJPY will rise in the near future, given that the US does not go into a recession.

There is an excessive amount of yen longs according to the chicago IMM futures data, and the longs are incurring interest costs as time goes by.

They must unwind the position and the market is just waiting for a catalyst to flick the stretched rubber band.

Therefore, my logic is I should increase the margin amount yen shorts now while USDJPY is still cheap, and profit on the way up beside saving on interests.

I might be wrong and USDJPY can go further down, but in any case the capital would be used for buying gold and bitcoin anyway so I can’t really lose. Also the interest payments are in my favor so I should be in a good position.